There is great importance of variance in poker, but good players will end up reaching the top.
What many people cannot understand is what is the size (number of hands / tournaments) necessary to be able to have a good database to analyze without chance is very important.
There are a large number of players who only play a couple of hundred hands each month. This is not a high enough amount to judge right if your game level is good or bad.
Keep this in mind: When backers are looking for new players, the hand histories they ask go from 20,000 to 50,000 (hands) to have a rough estimate, although 100,000 would be even better.
For us, mortals, 10,000 hands would be a good start.
Go ahead, do not you think of quitting a salaried job based on a profit analysis of only a couple of thousand hands. Everyone is capable of a good run.
Have a selective perception
The tendency for expectations to affect perception.
This can also be taken to poker, although in a less direct way than in the rest of previous concepts.
Basically, the idea behind selective perception is that you can stay too attached to some hands or decisions that have worked for you in the past.
For example, a pair of kings as the starting hand is a really strong play, but this does not mean that you have to bet on each of the streets if there is an ace on the flop (or clear choices of color or ladder).
This is a very obvious example, but it is possible that you have attachment to a specific hand (say pair of nines) because you have taken a big boat with her.
Once you have won a major hand with a pair of nines, you may ignore the signs that show that you overuse this hand that you risk too much with it based on a single performance.
You cannot ignore the evidence that shows that a hand or strategy is not working, however much that some experiences with them in the past have given you great profits.